Your Predictions in Indie Publishing for 2020?

Hi All,

You guys might remember I did a post here in September 2018 asking everyone's predictions for 2019. Well, 2020 is almost here so I was curious as to what others predict and I also wanted to share my analysis based on what I said back in September 2018.

Back then I said I felt 2019 would be the year of the wide author and more opportunities for selling wide would emerge. Well, needless to say I no longer believe that. Sadly, I think publishing wide these days is going nowhere for many authors. I am in groups with wide authors and it is a HUGE difference just from last year. Authors who were doing "okay" or "not bad" wide are doing horribly now. They can't get traction no matter what and what's worse is Bookbub Featured Deals aren't even effective like they used to be. Many wide authors have gone to KU. My own experience this year has been sad. At one while I'd caught fire at some places but it didn't last and traction seems nonexistent wide. If you don't have a rep or some way to get visibility in the wide stores outside of ads or promotion, it's hard. Amazon is no cakewalk either but it's much easier than being wide IMO. At least on Amazon you can still get some traction. With wide you can have a good month and the next you're not even selling in the double digits! It is so unpredictable.

I love the idea of being wide and still believe in diversification. I don't believe in depending on one store or anything entirely. But as I said in another thread where I was whining, I will be releasing in KU next year. I can't do this anymore because being wide is just costing me time and money. I am putting out more money than I am getting back. I've been wide for a few years so folks can't say I didn't try. I gave it my all. I will still keep books wide (because I don't want all my work exclusive to Amazon) but I had to make a decision and going into KU with my 2020 books seems the right choice. Plus, I write in a category that's 98% in KU! I get most of my sales on Amazon. I was doing okay on B&N but even it's been stinking lately. Apple, GP and Kobo are a joke for me. I haven't been paid by Kobo in a year or close to it.

The wide retailers are the problem. They offer no way to get visibility in their stores. At least on Amazon there are tools you can use. I'm not saying any store owes us anything but if we are selling there, you'd think they'd make more of an effort for authors who want to make wide work.

So, my prediction for 2019 didn't come true. Instead of wide growing and Amazon losing power, the opposite happened. The other retailers continue to do nothing to compete and Amazon is gaining MORE readership. I read an article a few months back that said more and more readers enter KU every year. That might explain why authors who did okay wide are now floundering, because those readers have run to KU. Makes sense.

Some people say that it's the authors' fault why Amazon is so powerful. I blame the other retailers because if they offered a more leveled playing field for indies then maybe everyone wouldn't be in KU. Can't blame authors for doing what's best for their careers. I mean, it's HARD having to send readers to sites all the time. Especially when you don't know where these dang wide readers are. Amazon isn't perfect but it has more advantages than wide (again my opinion).

I'm not giving up on wide just that I can no longer be solely dependent on being wide.

So, my predictions for 2020:

• Promotional methods like Bookbub will be less effective (already is). This will make it extremely difficult for wide authors who depend on Bookbubs to stay afloat.
  
• Mailing lists will become even more important as these other marketing methods dwindle.
  
• Sites like BookFunnel, StoryOrigin, MyBookCave will get more and more popular and there will probably be some new players entering the game.
  
• More ARC sites like Booksprout will pop up.
  
• Amazon will change their reviewing system where you will be able to leave ratings (like on other sites) without having to leave a text review.
  
• Facebook's popularity will dwindle more among authors and people in general.
  
• Ads will continue to be so-so and some authors will abandon them altogether. 
  
• More authors will drop writing because they find it too hard to sell. Nothing new.
  
• Amazon will keep its hold on the book world. Why wouldn't it? 
  
• Book prices for indies will trend higher. That's already happening. Ninety-nine cents seems useless these days even with a Bookbub. More indies have expressed raising prices. That's a good thing. 
•  There will be some new promo fad to come along that everyone will jump on. 
  
• There will be many new writing/publishing scams for the scammers to have a field day with.
  
• Multiauthor boxsets (especially to make lists) will fall in popularity.
• Bookbub click ads will probably fold judging by how many authors have stopped using them and the complaints I've heard. I've recently stopped using them too.
  
• Amazon ads will still be popular but Amazon will probably have to improve them because authors are ditching them and complaining as well. More and more trade publishers will use them making it harder for indies to compete with ad spend.
• More indie authors will realizing they will never be full-time authors because each year that goal gets harder and harder for most to achieve.
  
• More indies will turn to trade publishing because they can't sell books on their own or no longer want to try. 
  
• Audio won't be the boon people predict it will be because for many authors the ROI will be measly at best especially considering the expense to produce an audiobook. 
  

What are your predictions?